Phase III – Understanding and predicting responses of mangrove trees and formations to climate change in the Western Indian Ocean

The project focused on understanding and predicting the responses of mangrove trees and formations to climate change in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), specifically in Kenya, South Africa, and Madagascar. The initiative sought to address the multifaceted impacts of climate change on mangroves and their adaptive strategies.To achieve its ultimate objective, the project implemented a comprehensive approach divided into four subprojects, complemented by the exploration of the human dimension related to mangrove ecosystems. The first subproject engaged in data mining and desktop analyses to delineate the mangrove ‘climate envelope,’ particularly at latitudinal limits, utilizing existing datasets alongside field-based validation efforts. The second phase involved wood anatomical studies aimed at uncovering physio-ecological adaptations and verifying environmental archiving, especially concerning extreme weather events experienced over recent decades. The third subproject established a clear mapping of the topographical and elevational positions of mangrove formations, enabling predictive modeling of responses to potential sea level rise scenarios. The fourth component investigated the behavior of mangrove propagules, providing insights into the dynamic responses that facilitate or impede rejuvenation and colonization.In recognizing the human dimension, the project highlighted the various direct assets and indirect ecosystem services provided by mangroves. These services were evaluated based on the productivity of mangrove formations, particularly in terms of sustainable wood harvesting and maintenance of ecologically intact ecosystems. The significance of mangroves as breeding grounds, coastal stabilizers, and contributors to carbon sequestration and nutrient trapping was demonstrated across different settings. Through this multidisciplinary research initiative, the project achieved a deeper fundamental understanding of the interplay between ecological drivers, particularly climate change, and the adaptations exhibited by mangrove trees. The findings elucidated biogeographical and spatial adaptations, as well as physiological and ecological responses related to dispersal and establishment potential. From an applied perspective, the project informed practices around mangrove sustainability, emphasized the role of mangroves in carbon sequestration, examined the effects of harvesting, and underscored the potential for and necessity of restoration efforts. Ultimately, the results of this research provided a framework for science-based management strategies aimed at preserving these vital coastal ecosystems.