Phase III – Adapting to climate variability: Coping with short term climate variability through seasonal prediction and building social resilience

The project focused on adapting to climate variability by addressing short-term climate risks through seasonal predictions and enhancing social resilience within coastal communities in Kenya and Tanzania. Collaborating institutions included CORDIO East Africa, the University of Cape Town, the Kenya Meteorology Department, CSIRO Australia, and the IUCN Global Marine Programme. The primary aim was to develop a comprehensive framework for social adaptation to climate change, emphasizing time scales relevant to communities, specifically within the weeks to seasons range. The project targeted small-scale fishers and their broader communities, recognizing their vulnerability to climate impacts.

Key activities included predicting climate-related risks by developing a “coastal climate outlook” based on existing seasonal climate predictions and coral bleaching alerts. This outlook focused on essential indicators of climate variability, such as sea surface temperature and coastal rainfall, which directly affect ecosystems, resources, and livelihoods within the coastal zone. Assessments of social vulnerability were conducted to understand how coastal populations and their livelihood systems were affected by climate and other threats. The project utilized historical data on community responses to climate events and aimed to refine vulnerability assessment methods by monitoring the social impacts of any climate events that occurred during the study period.

The project also supported adaptation by integrating the coastal climate outlook and tailored adaptation recommendations into a localized climate adaptation response plan. This plan outlined actionable strategies to be implemented before, during, or after severe climate events and highlighted the importance of identifying supportive policies and institutional frameworks. Engagement with national and local institutions focused on natural resource management, disaster preparedness, risk reduction, and relevant sectoral ministries was crucial to facilitate effective adaptation efforts.

The comprehensive research findings, along with adaptation and policy recommendations, were designed to be applicable beyond the immediate study areas in the Western Indian Ocean region, enabling broader implementation in diverse systems where climate outlooks and social-ecological dynamics may vary. Ultimately, the project contributed significantly to understanding and improving social adaptation processes in the face of climate variability.