Phase IV – Emerging Knowledge for Local Adaptation – Modifying the Symbiosis of Knowledge and Governance for the Adaptation of Western Indian Ocean Coastal Communities at Risk from Global Change (EKLA)

Globally, the impacts of climate change are increasingly being experienced by local communities.  For example, June 2016 was the hottest ever recorded worldwide and the 14th straight month that global heat records were broken (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/).  The global temperature records date back 137 years, to 1880.  The changing global climate is challenging the way we govern and manage human activities.  Coastal communities are also affected.  The IPCC 5th Assessment Report identified storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise as some of the hazards that will result in increased vulnerability and expose communities to risk.  The changing climate does not, however, result in universally consistent impacts or effects.   

While we can be fairly accurate in our predictions of large-scale change, the manifestation of climate change at the local scale is dependent on many factors that include the physical and natural environment, urban or rural characteristics, and demography.  Without understanding the impacts of climate change at a smaller scale, it is impossible to act and manage wisely at that scale.  Downscaling of climate change predictions and the potential impacts are now increasingly being recognised as an important contributor to climate change adaptation.  If we cannot predict how our environment will change at the local scale, we cannot change our behaviour in the places we live and work to prevent or avoid the risks associated with both slow-onset change and sudden “shocks” associated with the altered global climate.   

Acting locally, knowing what impacts and changes to expect, and knowing who will be most affected and how is a pragmatic and real solution to safeguard communities and the environment upon which they rely.  Whether it is through community, local, or district government, private sector, or larger-scale administrative entities, the combined actions of many actors offer a solution for the scale of the problem we are facing.  That is to safeguard communities and plan for a society that can continue to thrive in a new climate future.

It is with this in mind that WIOMSA, through its MASMA Programme, funded a project entitled “Emerging Knowledge for Local Adaptation” (EKLA).  The project intended to improve the connection between the growing volume of a diversity of climate change data and information and the increasing burden of local governance agents to plan and manage places and people in a different future climate.  Knowing that climate change adaptation is intensely focused on wise local action that is, in turn, informed by relevant, timely, and quality data and information, what processes or procedures will better connect the “emerging” climate change knowledge with local coastal actors? 

One of the key considerations of the project was to understand how decisions are made and actions undertaken at the local level.  The notion of local governance units was coined for this project.  Local actions most often result from the institution called local government (i.e., municipalities, districts, counties, councils), but action and adaptation at this scale is not limited to formal local administration.  Other institutions that act locally include NGOs, CBOs, the private sector, and other national and sub-national government departments and agencies.  Collectively, these institutions and agencies act at the local scale known as the local coastal governance unit.  Early on in the project it was identified that the local governance units (LGUs) are different from one area to another, in the same country, and that LGUs are also very different between the three nations that form part of this study, i.e., Kenya, Mauritius, and South Africa.  The EKLA project is using what is known as the Five Capitals Approach to better understand the capabilities and capacities of LGUs of the three countries.  This approach was adapted for use by coastal LGUs in developing nations and is the first major project output.   

The adapted coastal CAF resulted in a local coastal governance baseline consisting of a large volume of data that were further incrementally summarized to be useful at different functional levels within local government. The CAF allowed for a comprehensive assessment of several factors and indicators for local coastal governance.  Due to the comprehensive nature of the framework, it became possible to describe the local implementation of ICM and the actions for adapting to climate change.  The interpretation or insight provided by the capitals data was useful at multiple levels within the governing structure of local government.  Reporting on the findings of the indicators provided a high level of detail useful to technical and planning staff, while summaries of factors provided sufficiently detailed information for managers.  Reporting on capitals was useful at the political level and for councillors due to its highly condensed format. 

The second objective considered the concept of “emerging climate change knowledge”, how it can be defined, and who produces it. Important are the needs of the potential user, the LGUs.  While the supply of emerging climate change knowledge is critically important, so is the feedback between user and producer that will result in scientific data that will become information, knowledge, and wisdom for local decision-makers.  The knowledge needs of coastal governance units are not well understood, partly because the institution of local governance is poorly defined within and between nations.  This project is working towards a better definition of the interface between emerging knowledge (the flow between data, information, knowledge, and wisdom) and the character, capabilities, and capacity of coastal LGUs in the Western Indian Ocean.  This was the second major output of the project. 

The knowledge summits allowed the in-country project teams to develop a better understanding of the coastal and climate change information available and match that with the information needs of county governments.  The discussions also created an opportunity for coastal governments to define the most important coastal climate change risks and opportunities and the information needed for managing those.  The knowledge summits resulted in registers of county government staff interested in continuing to share ideas on coastal and climate change issues and the availability of information on how to manage and adapt.

The delay in undertaking the local governance assessment in Mauritius allowed the project team to consolidate the learning from the assessments in Kenya and South Africa.  This resulted in the development of a preliminary assessment tool and procedure to implement a shorter, more consistent version of the CAF used in Kenya in South Africa.  The local assessment toolkit was successfully applied in Mauritius, and the results were shared with the key stakeholders (local and national government).  The CAF toolkit is deemed ready for wider use in the region.  Ideally, however, would be the future development of a web-based governance assessment toolkit linked to national and regional state of the coast assessment.

The overall assessment of the achievements of the Emerging Knowledge project is positive but with several caveats.  Much of the data still requires more thorough examination, with several academic publications lagging.  A conservative estimate is that there are at least 3 academic journal articles that are directly linked to the main activities of the project.  There are at least as many articles that can still follow from further analysis of the data. 

The major outputs and outcomes of the project are related to the engagement with local government in three countries, and the network of actors and the discussions that resulted from the project activities.  This is demonstrated through the ongoing engagement of the project teams. 

The development of a first version of the CAF local governance assessment toolkit and its testing in Mauritius may have a lasting impact if the number of future projects in which its use was included are funded for implementation.  The outlook for the use of the CAF is positive based on the inclusion of this approach in the World Bank, German International Climate Initiative (IKI), and European Union Horizon 2020 proposals.  The local coastal governance assessment based on the CAF has the potential to contribute to a lasting impact in the region and beyond. 

Most exciting is the potential for a local governance assessment tool that incorporates systems dynamics modelling to demonstrate the impact on the governance system based on policy interventions intended to increase the capitals.  A valuable aspect of this proposal is the fact that the governance assessment and scenario development for improvement are intended to be undertaken by local governance actors.  This selfassessment tool provides both a real evaluation of governance status according to the five capitals, but also allows the actors to experiment with the implementation of policy, and how this will influence the state of local coastal governance. 

The MASMA Grant allowed for a substantial amount of transdisciplinary research to be conducted and influence not only the theory of local coastal governance in general but also the view, opinions, and capacity of coastal management actors in the three countries that were studied.